Forex Market: EUR/SEK daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/SEK within the range of 9.2399-9.2942. The pair closed at 9.2729, gaining 0.06% on a daily basis.

At 7:34 GMT today EUR/SEK was up 0.03% for the day to trade at 9.2730. The pair touched a daily high at 9.2857.

Fundamentals

Euro zone

Spanish unemployment change

The number of the unemployed people in Spain probably increased by 21 300 in November, according to the median forecast by experts, following a gain by 79 200 during October. The latter has been the most significant monthly increase since January, when unemployed persons in the country were 113 100 more. An increase implies that consumer spending may be less active, while the latter is tightly related to economic growth. A decrease suggests the opposite. A larger-than-projected increase in unemployed people might have a bearish effect on the euro. The official data is due out at 8:00 GMT.

Euro zone producer prices

The annualized index of producer prices (PPI) probably fell 1.3% in October, according to market expectations, after a 1.4% decline in September. If so, this would be the highest level since July, when annualized producer inflation was recorded at -1.3%. The Producer Price Index measures changes in prices of goods and services either as they leave the production process, or as they enter it. Unlike the CPI, which measures price changes from the consumers perspective, the PPI basically gauges the prices received by domestic producers for their output, or the prices paid by domestic producers for their intermediate inputs. The PPI performance may be an early signal for inflationary pressure in economy. Generally speaking, a higher-than-expected PPI reading should be considered as having a bullish effect on the common currency, as it suggests accelerated consumer inflation, while a lower-than-expected result would have a bearish effect.

Sweden

Current account

The surplus on Swedens current account probably widened to SEK 49.8 billion in the third quarter of the year, according to the median forecast by experts. In Q2 the nation had a surplus of SEK 48.7 billion, which marked the smallest surplus since Q4 2011, when a figure of SEK 38.1 billion was reported.

The current account reflects the difference between a nation’s savings and its investments. It is the sum of the balance of trade, net current transfers (cash transfers) and net income from abroad (earnings from investments made abroad plus money sent by individuals working abroad to their families back home, minus payments made to foreign investors).

A current account surplus indicates that a country’s net foreign assets have increased by the respective amount, while a deficit suggests the opposite. A country with a surplus on its current account is considered as a net lender to the rest of the world, while a current account deficit puts it in the position of a net borrower. A net lender is consuming less than it is producing, which means it is saving and those savings are being invested abroad, or foreign assets are created. A net borrower is consuming more than it is producing, which means that other countries are lending it their savings, or foreign liabilities are created. Therefore, an expanding surplus or a contracting deficit on the current account of a nation usually has a bullish effect on its currency. The Sveriges Riksbank is to release the official numbers at 8:30 GMT.

Pivot Points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 9.2690. In case EUR/SEK manages to breach the first resistance level at 9.2981, it will probably continue up to test 9.3233. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 9.3524.

If EUR/SEK manages to breach the first key support at 9.2438, it will probably continue to slide and test 9.2147. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 9.1895.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 9.2021, M2 – 9.2293, M3 – 9.2564, M4 – 9.2836, M5 – 9.3107, M6 – 9.3379.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 9.2691. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 9.3020, R2 – 9.3296, R3 – 9.3625. The three key support levels are: S1 – 9.2415, S2 – 9.2086, S3 – 9.1810.