Yesterday’s trade saw USD/PLN within the range of 3.3731-3.3964. The pair closed at 3.3887, gaining 0.42% on a daily basis.
At 9:51 GMT today USD/PLN was up 0.09% for the day to trade at 3.3858. The pair touched a daily high at 3.3933.
Fundamentals
United States
Initial, Continuing jobless claims
The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the week ended on November 8th, probably rose to 280 000 from 278 000 in the prior week. The 4-week moving average, an indicator lacking seasonal effects, was 279 000, or a decrease of 2 250 from the previous weeks revised average. This has been the lowest level for this average since April 29th 2000, when it was reported at 273 000. The previous weeks average was revised up by 250 from 281 000 to 281 250.
Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims increased more than projected, this would have a bearish effect on the greenback.
The number of continuing jobless claims probably increased to the seasonally adjusted 2 350 000 during the week ended on November 1st, from 2 348 000 in the previous week. The latter was a decrease by 39 000 compared to the revised number of claims, reported on October 18th (2 387 000, revised up from 2 384 000). This has been the lowest level for insured unemployment since December 23rd 2000, when it was reported at 2 340 000. This indicator represents the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.
The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 12:30 GMT.
Budget Statement
The United States probably recorded a government budget deficit of USD 111.70 billion in October, according to market expectations, after a surplus of USD 105.80 billion during September. The latter was a 41% increase compared to the same month last year, as receipts rose at an annualized rate of 16.9% to reach USD 352 billion, while outlays increased at a rate of 8.9% to USD 246 billion. The largest budget deficit on record was registered in February 2012, or 231.677 billion USD. A wider than projected deficit would have a bearish effect on the greenback. The Financial Management Service, US Treasury is to publish the official figure at 19:00 GMT.
Poland
Current account
The deficit on Polands current account probably narrowed to EUR 644 million in September, according to the median forecast by experts. In August Polish current account produced a deficit of EUR 986 million, marking a third consecutive month of deficit.
The current account reflects the difference between a nation’s savings and its investments. It is the sum of the balance of trade, net current transfers (cash transfers) and net income from abroad (earnings from investments made abroad plus money sent by individuals working abroad to their families back home, minus payments made to foreign investors).
A current account surplus indicates that a country’s net foreign assets have increased by the respective amount, while a deficit suggests the opposite. A country with a surplus on its current account is considered as a net lender to the rest of the world, while a current account deficit puts it in the position of a net borrower. A net lender is consuming less than it is producing, which means it is saving and those savings are being invested abroad, or foreign assets are created. A net borrower is consuming more than it is producing, which means that other countries are lending it their savings, or foreign liabilities are created. Therefore, an expanding surplus or a contracting deficit on the current account of a nation usually has a bullish effect on its currency. The National Bank of Poland is to release the official numbers at 13:00 GMT.
Consumer inflation
Annualized consumer inflation in the country probably fell to -0.4% in October from -0.3% in September. If so, this would be the fourth consecutive month of negative inflation. In case the annualized CPI dropped at a faster than expected rate, this would have a bearish effect on the local currency. The Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS) will release the official inflation data at 13:00 GMT.
Pivot Points
According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 3.3861. In case USD/PLN manages to breach the first resistance level at 3.3990, it will probably continue up to test 3.4094. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 3.4223.
If USD/PLN manages to breach the first key support at 3.3757, it will probably continue to slide and test 3.3628. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 3.3524.
The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 3.3576, M2 – 3.3693, M3 – 3.3809, M4 – 3.3926, M5 – 3.4042, M6 – 3.4159.
In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 3.3909. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 3.4221, R2 – 3.4543, R3 – 3.4855. The three key support levels are: S1 – 3.3587, S2 – 3.3275, S3 – 3.2953.
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