Forex Market: GBP/USD daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw GBP/USD within the range of 1.5945-1.5832. The pair closed at 1.5919, shedding 0.49% on a daily basis.

At 8:03 GMT today GBP/USD was up 0.02% for the day to trade at 1.5923. The pair held in a daily range of 1.5904-1.5938.

Fundamental view

United Kingdom

The rate of unemployment in the UK probably fell to 5.9% in September from 6.0% a month earlier, the Office for National Statistics is expected to report at 09:30 GMT. If confirmed, this would be the lowest in six years.

At the same time, the Claimant Count Change, which represents the change in the number of unemployed people during the respective month, will probably show a decline of 24 900 in October, compared to -18 600 in September.

The statistics agency is also projected to report that the Average Earnings + Bonus index rose 0.9% in September, following a 0.7% gain in August. If confirmed, this would be the fastest pace of growth since March.

Meanwhile, Average Earnings ex Bonus probably rose by 1.1%, according to analysts’ forecasts, adding to August’s 0.9% growth. This would be the highest gain since March as well.

Later in the day, at 10:30 GMT, Bank of England is scheduled to publish its report, containing inflation rate and economic growth projections in regard to the next two years. In case the report shows a hawkish outlook, this usually provides support to the national currency, while a dovish outlook usually has a bearish effect on the pound.

United States

The US Census Bureau is expected to report at 15:00 GMT that US wholesale inventories expanded by 0.4% on a monthly basis in September, following a 0.7% gain in August. If confirmed, this would be the 15th straight month of expansion.

This indicator represents the change in stockpiles of unsold goods held by wholesalers. Generally speaking, an inventory pileup signifies slowing sales and thus an economic slowdown, while a lower inventory level points to a more robust growth.

A separate report by the Mortgage Bankers Association is projected to show that mortgage applications fell by 0.2% last week, following a 2.6% decline during the preceding five-day period and a 6.6% drop in the week before. This indicator measure the change in the number of new applications for mortgages backed by the MBA during the respective week.

Pivot levels

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.5899. In case GBP/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.5965, it may continue up to test 1.6012. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair could attempt to advance to 1.6078.

If GBP/USD manages to breach the first key support at 1.5852, it may continue to slide and test 1.5786. With this second key support broken, movement to the downside could continue to 1.5739.

The mid-pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 1.5763, M2 – 1.5819, M3 – 1.5876, M4 – 1.5932, M5 – 1.5989, M6 – 1.6045.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.5895. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.6002, R2 – 1.6130, R3 – 1.6237. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.5767, S2 – 1.5660, S3 – 1.5532.