Forex Market: EUR/PLN daily trading forecast

Friday’s trade saw EUR/PLN within the range of 4.1455-4.1963. The pair closed at 4.1920, gaining 0.45% on a daily basis.

At 6:48 GMT today EUR/PLN was down 0.09% for the day to trade at 4.1871. The pair broke the first key daily support and touched a daily low at 4.1848 during early Asian trade.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

Confidence among investors in the Euro zone was probably lower during the current month, with the corresponding index coming in at a reading of -12.1. In September it stood at -9.8. The index is based on results from the Sentix survey, one of the most prominent surveys, reflecting investors’ opinion in Germany. It encompasses 2 800 respondents, with 510 of them being institutional investors. Respondents present their expectations regarding ten different markets for a period of one and six months. Readings above zero indicate that respondents were predominantly optimistic, while readings below zero show pessimism. Lower than expected readings would have a bearish effect on the common currency. The official result is expected at 8:30 GMT.

Poland

At 8:00 GMT Polands Central Statistical Office is to report on unemployment in the country during September. In August the rate of unemployment fell to 11.7%, or the lowest level in three years, from 11.8% in the prior month. Unemployment dropped to 1.853 million people in August from 2.083 million during the same month a year ago and from 1.878 million in July. Employment in the enterprise sector rose at an annualized rate of 1.2% to 5.769 million people in August.

The unemployment rate reflects the number of unemployed people relative to the labor force. It is generally considered a leading indicator for the economy, as rising rates suggest the labor market is not faring well given the current economic conditions, and vice versa. Therefore, rising values suggest a slack in the economy and are deemed bearish for the Polish zloty, while a lower unemployment rate suggests economic expansion and, as a result, a stronger national currency.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 4.1779. In case EUR/PLN manages to breach the first resistance level at 4.2104, it will probably continue up to test 4.2287. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 4.2612.

If EUR/PLN manages to breach the first key support at 4.1596, it will probably continue to slide and test 4.1271. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 4.1088.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 4.1180, M2 – 4.1434, M3 – 4.1688, M4 – 4.1942, M5 – 4.2196, M6 – 4.2450.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 4.1779. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 4.2104, R2 – 4.2287, R3 – 4.2612. The three key support levels are: S1 – 4.1596, S2 – 4.1271, S3 – 4.1088.