Friday’s trade saw EUR/CZK within the range of 27.2570-27.5170. The pair closed at 27.4810, losing 0.06% on a daily basis and 0.19% for the whole week.
Fundamental view
Euro zone
German Factory Orders
German seasonally adjusted factory orders, an indicator gauging the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed for durable and non-durable goods, probably decreased 2.5% in August compared to a month ago, following a 4.6% increase in July. The annualized performance of the indicator showed a 4.9% increase in July. Factory orders are considered as a key indicator for analyzing the short-term trend in production in Germany. In case the gauge declined more than projected, this would cause a bearish impact on the euro. The official data is scheduled to be released at 6:00 GMT.
Euro zone Sentix Investor Confidence
Confidence among investors in the Euro zone was probably lower during the current month, with the corresponding index coming in at a reading of -12.1. In September it stood at -9.8. The index is based on results from the Sentix survey, one of the most prominent surveys, reflecting investors’ opinion in Germany. It encompasses 2 800 respondents, with 510 of them being institutional investors. Respondents present their expectations regarding ten different markets for a period of one and six months. Readings above zero indicate that respondents were predominantly optimistic, while readings below zero show pessimism. Lower than expected readings would have a bearish effect on the common currency. The official result is expected at 8:30 GMT.
Czech Republic
At 7:00 GMT the Czech Statistical Office is expected to report on the retail sales index for August. In July annualized sales rose at a pace of 6.2%. In monthly terms, retail sales dropped 0.8% in July, after a 2.5% gain in June, which has been the fastest rate of increase since November 2013, when the index surged at a record high monthly pace of 3.60%. This indicator reflects the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales by retailers in the country and provides key information regarding consumer spending trend in a shorter term, while the latter is a key driving force behind economic growth. Therefore, high rates of increase in sales usually provide support to the local currency.
Technical view
According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 27.4183. In case EUR/CZK manages to breach the first resistance level at 27.5797, it will probably continue up to test 27.6783. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 27.8397.
If EUR/CZK manages to breach the first key support at 27.3197, it will probably continue to slide and test 27.1583. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 27.0597.
The mid-Pivot levels for Monday are as follows: M1 – 27.1090, M2 – 27.2390, M3 – 27.3690, M4 – 27.4990, M5 – 27.6290, M6 – 27.7590.
In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 27.4327. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 27.6083, R2 – 27.7357, R3 – 27.9113. The three key support levels are: S1 – 27.3053, S2 – 27.1297, S3 – 27.0023.
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