Forex Market: USD/CHF daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/CHF within the range of 0.9351-0.9404. The pair closed at 0.9399, gaining 0.01% on a daily basis.

At 7:19 GMT today USD/CHF was down 0.08% for the day to trade at 0.9390. The pair touched a daily low at 0.9390 at 7:20 GMT.

Fundamental view

United States

Sales of new single-family homes probably climbed 4.4% to the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 430 000 during August compared to a month ago, according to market expectations. The index of new home sales dropped 2.4% to the annual rate of 412 000 in July from 422 000 in June.

There are several points to watch out for when interpreting the New Home Sales numbers. First of all, the statistics does not record any houses that are not going to be sold immediately. As an example, the case when a house is commissioned to be built on an existing plot of land that the purchaser owns.

Second, the statistics are taken at the point where a customer has signed a sales contract or has put a deposit down. At this point the house can be at any stage of construction.

Third, the sales figures are not adjusted to take into account the sales contracts, which are eventually canceled by the builder or the customer. However, the same house is not included in any subsequent count when it is eventually sold to another customer.

This report has a significant influence on the Forex market, because increasing new home sales can lead to a rise in consumption, for example. The new home sales index is also an excellent indicator of any economic downturns or upturns due to the sensitivity of consumers income. When, for instance, new home sales drop over several months, this usually is a precursor to an economic depression.

Therefore, in case the index rose more than anticipated, this would usually boost demand for the greenback. The US Census Bureau is to report the official figure at 14:00 GMT.

Switzerland

At 13:00 GMT the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to release its Quarterly Bulletin for Q3. Published since 1983, it contains a report on banks monetary policy as well as a report on business cycle trends during the current period. Both reports are used by the Governing Board for its quarterly assessment. The Bulletin also includes special reports such as the ”Exchange rate survey” by the SNB regional network and the ”Chronicle of monetary events”.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 0.9385. In case USD/CHF manages to breach the first resistance level at 0.9418, it will probably continue up to test 0.9438. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 0.9471.

If USD/CHF manages to breach the first key support at 0.9365, it will probably continue to slide and test 0.9332. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 0.9312.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 0.9322, M2 – 0.9349, M3 – 0.9375, M4 – 0.9402, M5 – 0.9428, M6 – 0.9455.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 0.9381. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 0.9463, R2 – 0.9517, R3 – 0.9599. The three key support levels are: S1 – 0.9327, S2 – 0.9245, S3 – 0.9191.