Forex Market: EUR/CHF daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/CHF within the range of 1.2059-1.2086. The pair closed at 1.2075, losing 0.02% on a daily basis.

At 6:58 GMT today EUR/CHF was up 0.02% for the day to trade at 1.2076. The pair touched a daily high at 1.2080 at 6:51 GMT.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

Business climate in Germany probably worsened in September, with the respective gauge slipping to 105.8 from 106.3 in August.

The IFO Business Climate Index reflects entrepreneurs’ sentiment in regard to current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. The index is based on a survey, conducted by phone and encompasses 7 000 companies, that operate in sectors such as manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing industry. The Business Climate Balance represents the difference between the percentage share of respondents that are optimistic and the share of respondents that are pessimistic. The index can fluctuate between -100, which suggests all responding companies assess their situation as poor and expect business conditions to deteriorate, and +100, which suggests all responding companies assess their situation as good and expect an improvement in business conditions.

The IFO Business Climate Index is comprised by two equally-weighted sub-indexes – a gauge of expectations and a gauge of current assessment. The IFO expectations index probably dropped to 101.2 in September from 101.7 in August, while the IFO current assessment index probably slid to 110.1 in the current month from 111.1 in August. If any of the gauges registered a larger than projected decline, this might have a bearish effect on the common currency.

The CESifo Group is to release the official numbers at 8:00 GMT.

Switzerland

At 13:00 GMT the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to release its Quarterly Bulletin for Q3. Published since 1983, it contains a report on banks monetary policy as well as a report on business cycle trends during the current period. Both reports are used by the Governing Board for its quarterly assessment. The Bulletin also includes special reports such as the ”Exchange rate survey” by the SNB regional network and the ”Chronicle of monetary events”.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.2073. In case EUR/CHF manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.2088, it will probably continue up to test 1.2100. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.2115.

If EUR/CHF manages to breach the first key support at 1.2061, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.2046. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.2034.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 1.2040, M2 – 1.2054, M3 – 1.2067, M4 – 1.2081, M5 – 1.2094, M6 – 1.2108.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.2085. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.2112, R2 – 1.2153, R3 – 1.2180. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.2044, S2 – 1.2017, S3 – 1.2000.