Grains trading outlook: corn, wheat futures extend slump, soybeans hold

Corn and wheat futures were further in the red during early trade in Europe today, while soybeans managed to halt the slide, though not before logging massive losses, as traders priced in the latest figures on US crops.

Weather patterns call for few rains and mild temperatures in the Midwest and Northern Plains this week, prime conditions for late-filling and maturing crops, while also favoring fieldwork and supporting the start of harvest. Scattered showers and mostly dry weather over the Southern Plains will favor both fieldwork and crops, with early development of winter wheat set to benefit a bunch.

Corn futures for December delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) stood at $3.292 per bushel at 8:05 GMT, down 0.30%. The contract dropped to the lowest in more than four years yesterday at $3.266 per bushel. Corn is down some 27% this year.

NASS logged corn crops’ condition remained quite impressive as of September 21st, logging 74% in good or excellent condition, well above the 55% of the same week last year. Also, 42% of corn had matured and harvesting had begun, as investors look to collect the biggest harvest on record, with some 14.395 billion bushels. Many analysts and farmers expect “massive piles” of corn laying on the ground, as inventory room looks insufficient.

“There’s more production than what we need, and until something changes the perception that we’re going to increase ending stocks for both U.S. and world inventories of grains, there’s not a lot of hope for new buyers to come in,” William Fordham, the president of C & S Grain Market Consulting in Ohio, Illinois, said for Bloomberg. “Eventually, those prices will create new demand, but how low is enough to create that new demand, we don’t know yet.”

Soybeans, wheat

Soybeans futures for November were at $9.400 per bushel, up 0.19%, though it earlier reached the lowest price in more than four years at $9.310. Beans are down about 29% this year.

Meanwhile, December wheat traded at $4.752 per bushel, down 0.31%. The wheat contract also reached a four-year bottom on Monday at $4.694. Wheat prices have fallen ~25% this season.

NASS reported 72% of soybeans in good or excellent shape, with the harvest started, set to also log the biggest crop on record at some 3.913bn bushels. Meanwhile, spring wheat harvest was 86% complete, lagging behind the 92% 5-year average, while winter wheat planting was at 25% done.

Technical support and resistance levels

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, December corn future’s central pivot point on the CBOT stands at $3.294. The contract will see its first resistance level at $3.322. If breached, it will advance to $3.342 and then to $3.370 per bushel. The first support points is estimated at $5.274. Should it be broken, wheat will test $3.246 and after that $3.226 per bushel.

November soybeans’ central pivot is at $9.423. The future will have its first resistance at $9.505 and if it broken it will advance first to $9.627 and then to $9.709 per bushel. The first support level is calculated at $9.301. Should the contract breach that, it will probably continue down to $9.219. If both support levels are penetrated corn will test $9.097 per bushel.

December wheat’s central pivot is projected at $4.755. The contract will have the front resistance level at $4.817. If it manages to pass the first level, next resistance is expected at $4.867 and then $4.929 per bushel. Meanwhile, support is expected at $4.705, $4.643 and $4.593 per bushel.