Forex Market: EUR/NOK daily trading forecast

Friday’s trade saw EUR/NOK within the range of 8.2194-8.2575. The pair closed at 8.2478, gaining 0.02% on a daily basis.

At 6:35 GMT today EUR/NOK was up 0.01% for the day to trade at 8.2457. The pair touched a daily high at 8.2592 during early Asian trade.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

At 9:00 GMT Eurostat is to release the official report on trade in the Euro zone for July. The surplus on Euro regions balance of trade reached 16.808 billion EUR in June, or the largest figure since October 2013. In June 2013 the trade surplus was at the amount of 15.7 billion EUR. Total exports rose at an annualized pace of 3% to reach 162.2 billion EUR in June, while imports rose 2% to 145.4 billion EUR. Euro zones balance of trade recorded an all-time high surplus of 21.780 billion EUR in March 2013.

The surplus on regions extra-EU28 trade balance was at the amount of 2.9 billion EUR in June, while in June 2013 the surplus figure was 8.6 billion EUR.

Euro zones balance of trade produces regular surpluses mainly due to the high export of manufactured goods, such as machinery and vehicles. At the same time, the region is a net importer of energy and raw materials. Member states such as Germany, Italy, France and Netherlands play a key role in total trade.

The trade balance, as an indicator, measures the difference in value between region’s exported and imported goods and services during the reported period. It reflects the net export of goods and services, or one of the components to form the Gross Domestic Product. Generally, exports reflect economic growth, while imports indicate domestic demand. In case the trade balance surplus continued to expand in July, this would certainly have a bullish effect on the single currency.

Norway

At 8:00 GMT Statistics Norway is to report on nations trade balance regarding August. In July Norway had a surplus at the amount of 22.585 billion NOK, up from 17.810 billion NOK in June. Nations balance of trade produced a record high surplus of 48.270 billion NOK in January this year.

International trade accounts for almost 37% of Norway’s Gross Domestic Product. Countrys main exports include seafood, crude oil, light metals, ship equipment and maritime services, while it imports mostly machinery and equipment, chemicals, metals, and foodstuffs.

In case of expanding trade surplus in August, the krone would receive a boost.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 8.2416. In case EUR/NOK manages to breach the first resistance level at 8.2636, it will probably continue up to test 8.2797. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 8.3018.

If EUR/NOK manages to breach the first key support at 8.2255, it will probably continue to slide and test 8.2035. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 8.1875.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 8.1955, M2 – 8.2146, M3 – 8.2336, M4 – 8.2527, M5 – 8.2717, M6 – 8.2908.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 8.2078. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 8.2975, R2 – 8.3472, R3 – 8.4369. The three key support levels are: S1 – 8.1581, S2 – 8.0684, S3 – 8.0187.