Forex Market: USD/SEK daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/SEK within the range of 7.0868-7.1223. The pair closed at 7.1041, losing 0.07% on a daily basis.

At 6:36 GMT today USD/SEK was up 0.06% for the day to trade at 7.1048. The pair touched a daily low at 7.1100 at 6:30 GMT.

Fundamental view

United States

Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims

The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the week ended on September 5th, probably dropped to 300 000 from 302 000 in the prior week. This is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of initial jobless claims decreased more than projected, this would have a bullish effect on the greenback. The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 12:30 GMT.

The number of continuing jobless claims probably increased to the seasonally adjusted 2 470 000 during the week ended on August 29th, from 2 464 000 in the previous week. This indicator represents the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.

Monthly Budget Statement

The United States probably recorded a government budget deficit of 132.50 billion USD in August, according to market expectations, after a deficit of 94.59 billion USD during the previous month. The latter was a 3% decrease compared to the same month last year, as tax revenue rose at a faster pace than government spending. The largest budget deficit on record was registered in February 2012, or 231.677 billion USD. A wider than projected deficit would have a bearish effect on the greenback. The Financial Management Service, US Treasury is to publish the official figure at 18:00 GMT.

Sweden

Consumer inflation

Sweden’s annualized index of consumer prices (CPI) probably remained flat in August, following another flat performance in July. The index measures the change in price levels of a basket of goods and services from consumer’s perspective and also reflects purchasing tendencies. Nation’s annualized core CPI probably remained unchanged at 0.6% last month. Lower than expected CPI would have a bearish effect on the krone, while higher than expected values would provide support. Statistics Sweden is to release the official report at 7:30 GMT.

Unemployment

The rate of unemployment in Sweden probably climbed to 7.2% during August, according to the median forecast by experts. In July the rate was reported at 7.1%, or the lowest since October 2013. It represents the percentage of the eligible work force that is unemployed, but is actively seeking employment. The rate of unemployment also reflects overall economic state in the country, as there is a strong correlation between consumer spending levels and labor market conditions. Low rates of unemployment are accompanied by increased spending, which causes a favorable effect on corporate profits and also leads to overall growth acceleration. Therefore, in case the rate of unemployment fell more than expected, this would provide support to the krone and vice versa. Statistics Sweden is to announce the official rate at 7:30 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 7.1044. In case USD/SEK manages to breach the first resistance level at 7.1220, it will probably continue up to test 7.1399. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 7.1575.

If USD/SEK manages to breach the first key support at 7.0865, it will probably continue to slide and test 7.0689. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 7.0510.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 7.0600, M2 – 7.0777, M3 – 7.0955, M4 – 7.1132, M5 – 7.1310, M6 – 7.1487.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 7.0593. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 7.1388, R2 – 7.1795, R3 – 7.2590. The three key support levels are: S1 – 7.0186, S2 – 6.9391, S3 – 6.8984.