Yesterday’s trade saw USD/BRL within the range of 2.2838-2.3010. The pair closed at 2.2885, gaining 0.07% on a daily basis.
At 7:47 GMT today USD/BRL was down 0.01% for the day to trade at 2.2882. The pair touched a daily low at 2.2873 at 6:35 GMT.
Fundamental view
United States
Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims
The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the week ended on September 5th, probably dropped to 300 000 from 302 000 in the prior week. This is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of initial jobless claims decreased more than projected, this would have a bullish effect on the greenback. The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 12:30 GMT.
The number of continuing jobless claims probably increased to the seasonally adjusted 2 470 000 during the week ended on August 29th, from 2 464 000 in the previous week. This indicator represents the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.
Monthly Budget Statement
The United States probably recorded a government budget deficit of 132.50 billion USD in August, according to market expectations, after a deficit of 94.59 billion USD during the previous month. The latter was a 3% decrease compared to the same month last year, as tax revenue rose at a faster pace than government spending. The largest budget deficit on record was registered in February 2012, or 231.677 billion USD. A wider than projected deficit would have a bearish effect on the greenback. The Financial Management Service, US Treasury is to publish the official figure at 18:00 GMT.
Brazil
Annualized retail sales in Brazil probably rose at a pace of 2% in July, according to the median estimate by experts, following another 0.8% gain in June. In monthly terms, sales probably increased 0.5% in July, after a 0.7% drop in the prior month. This indicator reflects the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales by retailers in the country and provides key information regarding consumer spending trend in a shorter term, while the latter is a key driving force behind economic growth. Therefore, a higher than expected rate of increase in sales usually has a positive effect on the local currency.
Retail sales in Brazil climbed at a record-high annualized rate of 15.70% during March 2010.
Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) is scheduled to release the official numbers at 12:00 GMT.
Technical view
According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 2.2911. In case USD/BRL manages to breach the first resistance level at 2.2984, it will probably continue up to test 2.3083. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 2.3156.
If USD/BRL manages to breach the first key support at 2.2812, it will probably continue to slide and test 2.2739. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 2.2640.
The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 2.2690, M2 – 2.2776, M3 – 2.2862, M4 – 2.2948, M5 – 2.3034, M6 – 2.3120.
In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 2.2407. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 2.2566, R2 – 2.2727, R3 – 2.2886. The three key support levels are: S1 – 2.2246, S2 – 2.2087, S3 – 2.1926.
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