Forex Market: NZD/USD daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw NZD/USD within the range of 0.8206-0.8266. The pair closed at 0.8223, losing 0.28% on a daily basis.

At 7:17 GMT today NZD/USD was down 0.12% for the day to trade at 0.8185. The pair broke the first key daily support as well as the first and the second key weekly support levels and touched a daily low at 0.8176 at 6:55 GMT.

Fundamental view

New Zealand

At 22:30 GMT Business NZ is expected to announce the results from its survey in August, that encompasses purchasing managers in New Zealand’s manufacturing sector. The corresponding PMI came in at a reading of 53.0 in July. This compound index provides clues over how resilient activity in nation’s manufacturing is. Values above the key level of 50.0 are indicative of predominant optimism (expanding activity in the sector). Higher activity usually implies potential economic growth and accelerating rate of inflation. Higher readings of the PMI would support New Zealand dollar.

Yesterday the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its benchmark interest rate intact at 3.50% in line with market expectations, following four consecutive rate hikes this year.

United States

Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims

The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the week ended on September 5th, probably dropped to 300 000 from 302 000 in the prior week. This is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of initial jobless claims decreased more than projected, this would have a bullish effect on the greenback. The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 12:30 GMT.

The number of continuing jobless claims probably increased to the seasonally adjusted 2 470 000 during the week ended on August 29th, from 2 464 000 in the previous week. This indicator represents the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.

Monthly Budget Statement

The United States probably recorded a government budget deficit of 132.50 billion USD in August, according to market expectations, after a deficit of 94.59 billion USD during the previous month. The latter was a 3% decrease compared to the same month last year, as tax revenue rose at a faster pace than government spending. The largest budget deficit on record was registered in February 2012, or 231.677 billion USD. A wider than projected deficit would have a bearish effect on the greenback. The Financial Management Service, US Treasury is to publish the official figure at 18:00 GMT.

Technical view


According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 0.8232. In case NZD/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 0.8257, it will probably continue up to test 0.8292. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 0.8317.

If NZD/USD manages to breach the first key support at 0.8197, it will probably continue to slide and test 0.8172. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 0.8137.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 0.8155, M2 – 0.8185, M3 – 0.8215, M4 – 0.8245, M5 – 0.8275, M6 – 0.8305.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 0.8329. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 0.8391, R2 – 0.8452, R3 – 0.8514. The three key support levels are: S1 – 0.8268, S2 – 0.8206, S3 – 0.8145. is a financial media specialized in providing daily news and education covering Forex, equities and commodities. Our academies for traders cover Forex, Price Action and Social Trading.

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