Forex Market: AUD/CNY trading forecast for Monday

Friday’s trade saw AUD/CNY within the range of 5.7270-5.7722. The pair closed at 5.7589, gaining 0.35% on a daily basis and 0.39% for the whole week.

Fundamental view

Australia

At 1:30 GMT on Monday the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) will publish data regarding the number of job advertisements in Australia in August. It encompasses advertisements in the major metropolitan newspapers and on the internet sites. The corresponding index, based on a survey by ANZ, climbed 0.3% in July compared to June. This indicator is used for projecting growth in employment in Australia, as it reflects labor market conditions in the future. An increase in the number of jobs would have a bullish effect on the Aussie dollar.

China

The surplus on Chinese trade balance probably continued to expand to reach 48.7 billion USD during August, according to the median forecast by experts. If so, this would be a new record high surplus, as in July nations trade balance produced an all-time high surplus at the amount of 47.3 billion USD. Exports grew at an annualized rate of 14.5% to reach 212.9 billion USD in July. Shipments to the United States rose 12.3%, to European Union – 17%, to Japan – 2.9% and to South Korea – 32.1%. Chinas imports shrank 1.6% to 165.6 billion USD in July. In August total exports probably grew at an annualized pace of 8.0%, while total imports probably rose 1.7%.

The trade balance, as an indicator, measures the difference in value between country’s exported and imported goods and services during the reported period. It reflects the net export of goods and services, or one of the components to form country’s Gross Domestic Product. Generally, exports reflect economic growth, while imports indicate domestic demand. In case the trade balance surplus expanded more than anticipated, this would certainly have a bullish effect on the yuan. Chinas General Administration of Customs will release the official trade data at 2:00 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 5.7527. In case AUD/CNY manages to breach the first resistance level at 5.7784, it will probably continue up to test 5.7979. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 5.8236.

If AUD/CNY manages to breach the first key support at 5.7332, it will probably continue to slide and test 5.7075. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 5.6880.

The mid-Pivot levels for Monday are as follows: M1 – 5.6978, M2 – 5.7204, M3 – 5.7430, M4 – 5.7656, M5 – 5.7882, M6 – 5.8108.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 5.7413. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 5.7898, R2 – 5.8208, R3 – 5.8693. The three key support levels are: S1 – 5.7103, S2 – 5.6618, S3 – 5.6308.