Friday’s trade saw USD/BRL within the range of 2.2455-2.2326, the lowest since July 30th. The pair closed at 2.2360, shedding 0.25% on a daily and 1.84% on a weekly basis.
At 11:09 GMT today USD/BRL was up 0.04% for the day to trade at 2.2359, having shifted in a daily range between 2.2359 and 2.2366.
Fundamental view
The lack of data from the US on Monday, due to the Labor Day holiday, will cause the currency pair’s movements to be largely influenced by data from Brazil.
At 13:00 GMT, Markit Economics, in collaboration with HSBC, will report on Brazils factory growth rate in August. According to analysts preliminary forecasts, Brazils manufacturing sector probably contracted for a fifth straight month, with the corresponding Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index projected to come in at 48.5, down from 49.1 in July. The level of 50 is a threshold between the scales contraction and expansion zones.
Separately, Brazils Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade is projected to report at 18:00 GMT that the nations trade surplus narrowed to $1.2 billion in August from $1.58 billion a month earlier.
The trade balance measures the difference in value between a country’s exported and imported goods and services during the reported period. It reflects the net export of goods and services, or one of the components to form the country’s gross Product. Generally speaking, exports reflect economic growth, while imports indicate domestic demand. A rising trade surplus suggests strengthening demand for the local currency and is thus seen as a bullish factor for the real.
Technical view
According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 2.2380. In case USD/BRL manages to breach the first resistance level at 2.2435, it will probably continue up to test 2.2509. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 2.2564.
If USD/BRL manages to breach the first key support at 2.2306, it will probably continue to slide and test 2.2251. With this second key support broken, movement to the downside will probably continue to 2.2177.
The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 2.2214, M2 – 2.2279, M3 – 2.2343, M4 – 2.2408, M5 – 2.2472, M6 – 2.2537.
In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 2.2530. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 2.2735, R2 – 2.3109, R3 – 2.3314. The three key support levels are: S1 – 2.2156, S2 – 2.1951, S3 – 2.1577.
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