Forex Market: EUR/PLN daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/PLN within the range of 4.2266 – 4.1985. The pair closed at 4.2230, up 0.55% on a daily basis.

At 7:15 GMT today EUR/PLN was up 0.05% for the day to trade at 4.2256. The pair held in a daily range between 4.2208 and 4.2336, the highest since March 18th.

Fundamental view

Eurozone

Unemployment within the Eurozone probably remained unchanged at 11.5% in July, Eurostat will report at 09:00 GMT.

Meanwhile, consumer prices likely rose by an annualized 0.3% in August, according to preliminary data, compared to 0.4% in July. If confirmed, this would be the lowest gain since October 2009.

Core consumer prices, which exclude the more volatile food, energy, alcohol and tobacco products, are expected to have risen by 0.8%, the same as in July.

Germany

Destatis reported that Germany’s retail sales rose by an annualized 0.7% in July from 0.1% in June, underperforming analysts’ projections for a 1.5% jump. Month-on-month, purchases at retail stores slid by 1.4% following a downward-revised 1.0% rise a month earlier. Economists had projected a 0.1% increase.

Spain

Purchases at retail stores in Spain contracted in July. Data by Spain’s National Institute of Statistics showed that retail sales slid 0.5% in July, following a 0.2% jump in June. Economists had projected a 0.1% jump growth.

Additionally, Bank of Spain is expected to report at 08:00 GMT that the nation’s current account deficit widened to $1.1 billion in June from $0.584 billion in May.

A separate report by the Ministry of Industry, Tourism and Trade is likely to show that Business Confidence in the Eurozone’s fourth-biggest economy remained unchanged in August.

Italy

A slate of economic data from Italy is due today.

Italy’s National Institute of Statistics is expected to report at 08:00 GMT that unemployment in the Eurozone’s third-largest economy remained unchanged in July at 12.3%.

Later, at 09:00 GMT, Istat will release its preliminary consumer prices report. The annualized preliminary consumer price index probably marked a 0.2% contraction in August, after a month ago the final CPI stood at 0.1%. Month-on-month, consumer inflation is projected at 0.1% after declining 0.l% in July.

The nation’s annualized preliminary CPI for August, evaluated in accordance with the harmonized methodology, probably contracted 0.1%, compared to remaining flat in July. Month-on-month, Italy’s HICP probably declined by 0.1% after a 2.1% contraction a month earlier.

Due at 10:00 GMT, Istat will report on Italy’s second-quarter economic expansion. The statistics agency’s data is likely to show that the Italian economy contracted by an annualized 0.3% in the three months through June, after declining 0.4% in Q1. Quarter-on-quarter, the Italian economy is projected to have shrunk by 0.2%, from -0.1% in the first quarter.

Poland

Polands Central Statistical Office will report on the countrys Gross Domestic Growth at 08:00 GMT. The agencys data is expected to show that the Polish economy grew by an annualized 3.2% in the second quarter, the same as in the preceding three months.

GDP represents the total monetary value of all goods and services produced by one nation over a specific period of time. What is more, it is the broadest indicator of a countrys economic activity. The report on GDP holds a lot of weight for traders, operating in the Foreign Exchange Market. It serves as evidence of growth in a productive economy, or as evidence of contraction in an unproductive one. As a result, currency traders will look for higher rates of growth as a sign that interest rates will follow the same direction. Higher interest rates will attract more investors, willing to purchase assets in the country, while, at the same time, this will increase demand for the national currency.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 4.2160. In case EUR/PLN manages to breach the first resistance level at 4.2336, it will probably continue up to test 4.2441. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 4.2617.

If EUR/PLN manages to breach the first key support at 4.2055, it will probably continue to slide and test 4.1879. With this second key support broken, movement to the downside will probably continue to 4.1774.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 4.1827, M2 – 4.1967, M3 – 4.2108, M4 – 4.2248, M5 – 4.2389, M6 – 4.2529.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 4.1930. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 4.2074, R2 – 4.2219, R3 – 4.2363. The three key support levels are: S1 – 4.1785, S2 – 4.1641, S3 – 4.1496.