Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/SEK within the range of 9.1679 – 9.1448. The pair closed at 9.1604, adding 0.13% on a daily basis.
At 6:13 GMT today EUR/SEK was down 0.04% for the day to trade at 9.1594. The pair held in a daily range of 9.1516 – 9.1662.
Fundamental view
Germany
Destatis reported today that Germanys Import Price Index fell by 0.4% in July on a monthly basis, compared to expectations for a 0.1% decline following Junes 0.2% jump. Year-on-year, import prices lost 1.7%, compared to a 1.2% decline the previous month. Analysts had projected a 1.4% drop.
The Import Price Index measures the changes in prices of imported goods in Germany. It is used to distinguish changes in trade volume versus changes in trade prices. While the former suggests rising consumer demand and economic activity, the latter implies higher production costs and inflation. Generally speaking, a better-than-projected reading should be seen as bullish for the euro, and vice versa.
Meanwhile, the Gfk Consumer Confidence index also trailed analysts expectations to remain flat at 9 for September and dropped to 8.6.
Since it measures consumer sentiment, Gfks report is considered as a leading indicator. It is based on a survey conducted among 2 000 consumers, which rate the past and future economic conditions. High values indicate strong consumer confidence, which boosts economic growth, thus, are considered as bullish for the euro. Logically, declining or worse-than-expected values are seen as bearish for the blocs currency.
France
Frances National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) will likely report that business conditions probably worsened in August from a month earlier. The Business Climate index probably slid to 96 this month, down from 97 in July.
The index reflects the performance of the French economy in the short-term perspective. It is compiled from a survey of around 4 000 business leaders from varying sectors.
A higher value is seen as bullish for the euro and vice versa.
Italy
Italys consumer confidence is also expected to have fallen in August. The Italian National Institute of Statistics will likely report at 8:00 GMT that its index fell to 104.0 from 104.6 in July.
Like with any other country, Italys consumer confidence is also a leading indicator as it gives a preliminary insight into consumer spending, which makes up most of GDP. Thus, higher readings are generally seen as bullish for the euro, and vice versa.
Sweden
Swedens National Institute of Economic Research is expected to report that consumer confidence in Sweden remained mostly unchanged in August, with the Consumer Confidence index remaining flat at 99.9 in August. Meanwhile, Business Confidence is projected to have eased to 102.2 from 102.7 in July.
Swedens trade surplus widened to 5.40 billion Swedish kroner in July, up from 5.2 billion a month earlier, the SCB – Statistics Sweden will likely report at 7:30 GMT.
The trade balance measures the difference in value between country’s exported and imported goods and services during the reported period. It reflects the net export of goods and services, or one of the components to form country’s Gross Domestic Product. Generally, exports reflect economic growth, while imports indicate domestic demand. A rising trade surplus implies the country is competitive on the international trade scene, which heightens the interest toward its currency. Generally speaking, a higher-than-projected trade surplus is seen as bullish for the local currency, and vice versa.
Technical view
According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 9.1577. In case EUR/SEK manages to breach the first resistance level at 9.1706, it will probably continue up to test 9.1808. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 9.1937.
If EUR/SEK manages to breach the first key support at 9.1475, it will probably continue to slide and test 9.1346. With this second key support broken, movement to the downside will probably continue to 9.1244.
The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 9.1295, M2 – 9.1411, M3 – 9.1526, M4 – 9.1642, M5 – 9.1757, M6 – 9.1873.
In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 9.1564. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 9.1791, R2 – 9.2035, R3 – 9.2262. The three key support levels are: S1 – 9.1320, S2 – 9.1093, S3 – 9.0849.
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