Forex Market: EUR/PLN daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/PLN within the range of 4.1909 – 4.1752. The pair closed at 4.1842, losing 0.08% on a daily basis.

At 6:56 GMT today EUR/PLN was down 0.03% for the day to trade at 4.1824. The pair held in a daily range of 4.1820 and 4.1865, touched at 6:20 GMT.

Fundamental view

Poland

Due to be published today are Polands July retail sales and unemployment rate.

Released by Polands Central Statistical Office, retail sales measure the changes in prices in Polands retail sector. It is the foremost indicator for consumer spending, which makes up the consumption part of the GDP. The measure is not adjusted for inflation and services spending is excluded. The most volatile components such as autos, food and gas prices are often stripped out to show a more smoothed underlying demand. Thus, improving and better-than-expected values are seen as bullish, and vice versa. Bear in mind that excessively high readings may precede inflationary pressures.

According to economists expectations, retail sales are expected to have jumped by an annualized 2.1% in July, up from 1.2% a month earlier, which was the slowest growth in a year.

Meanwhile, Polands unemployment rate is projected to have fallen to 11.8% in July from 12.0% during the previous month. Released by Polands Central Statistical Office, the unemployment rate shows the number of unemployed people relative to the labor force. It is generally considered as a leading indicator for the economy as high values suggest the labor market is not faring well given the current economic conditions, and vice versa. Thus, rising readings suggest a slack in the economy and are seen as bearish for the Polish zloty, while a lower unemployment level suggests economic expansion and therefore a stronger national currency.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 4.1834. In case EUR/PLN manages to breach the first resistance level at 4.1917, it will probably continue up to test 4.1991. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 4.2074.

If EUR/PLN manages to breach the first key support at 4.1760, it will probably continue to slide and test 4.1677. With this second key support broken, movement to the downside will probably continue to 4.1603.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 4.1640, M2 – 4.1719, M3 – 4.1797, M4 – 4.1876, M5 – 4.1954, M6 – 4.2033.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 4.1930. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 4.2074, R2 – 4.2219, R3 – 4.2363. The three key support levels are: S1 – 4.1785, S2 – 4.1641, S3 – 4.1496.