Forex Market: USD/CAD daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.0940-1.0986. The pair closed at 1.0946, losing 0.22% on a daily basis.

At 6:46 GMT today USD/CAD was down 0.06% for the day to trade at 1.0934. The pair broke the first key daily support level and touched a daily low at 1.0928 at 5:40 GMT.

Fundamental view

United States

At 14:00 GMT Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is expected to take a statement at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Yellen took office as Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on February 3rd 2014 for a four-year mandate ending on February 3rd 2018.

The greenback received massive support against its major peers, following the release of the minutes from Feds most recent meeting on policy on Wednesday. The minutes revealed that US labor market is improving at a faster than projected pace, while these better labor market conditions could lead to a sooner than expected increase in the Fed cash rate.

Canada

The annualized index of consumer prices (CPI) in Canada probably slowed down to 2.3% in July, according to market expectations, from 2.4% in June and matching the rate in May, which has been the highest in 27 months. In monthly terms, the CPI probably fell 0.1% last month, following a 0.1% gain in June.

Key categories in Canadian CPI basket are Shelter (accounting for 27.5% of the total weight) and Transportation (19.3%). Other categories include Food (with a 16.1% share), Household Operations, Furnishings and Equipment (11.8%), Recreation, Education and Reading (11.8%), Clothing and Footwear (5.7%), Health and Personal Care (5%), while Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco Products comprise the remaining 3%.

Bank of Canadas (BoC) annualized Core CPI, which excludes prices of fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgages, intercity transportation, and tobacco products, probably accelerated to 1.9% in July from 1.8% in the prior month. This is the key measure of inflation, on which the central bank bases its decisions regarding monetary policy. In case Core CPI increased more than projected, but still remained within BoC inflation range target (1-3%), this would support demand for the loonie, as Canadian dollar is also known. The official CPI report by Statistics Canada is due out at 12:30 GMT.

Retail sales in the country probably increased 0.3% in June on a monthly basis, according to the median forecast by experts. In May sales rose 0.7%. Retail sales, excluding sales of automobiles, probably expanded 0.3% in June, following a 0.1% gain in the preceding month. Large-ticket purchases are excluded due to their high volatility, which could influence the general trend. In case retail sales increased more than anticipated, this would support the Canadian dollar. Statistics Canada is to release the official figure at 12:30 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.0957. In case USD/CAD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.0975, it will probably continue up to test 1.1003. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.1021.

If USD/CAD manages to breach the first key support at 1.0929, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.0911. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.0883.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 1.0897, M2 – 1.0920, M3 – 1.0943, M4 – 1.0966, M5 – 1.0989, M6 – 1.1012.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.0899. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.0939, R2 – 1.0979, R3 – 1.1019. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.0859, S2 – 1.0819, S3 – 1.0779.