Forex Market: AUD/HKD trading forecast for Monday

Friday’s trade saw AUD/HKD within the range of 7.2069-7.2347. The pair closed at 7.2236, gaining 0.05% on a daily basis and 0.45% for the whole week.

Fundamental view

Australia

At 1:30 GMT on Monday the Australian Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to report on new motor vehicle sales in the country for July. New vehicle registrations rose to 94 389 vehicles in June from 92 836 in May, or a 1.7% increase. A record high number of new vehicle registrations in Australia was recorded in September 2012 (98 241). New car sales, as an indicator, reflect how strong consumer confidence is. In case consumers are willing to make large-ticket purchases, such as new automobiles, this suggests they have greater confidence regarding their financial prospects. However, as new car sales account for a small portion of Australian Gross Domestic Product, a potential increase would have a limited bullish impact on the national currency.

Hong Kong

The rate of unemployment in Hong Kong probably continued to increase, reaching 3.30% in July, according to expectations, from 3.20% in June and 3.10% in May. This indicator represents the percentage of the eligible work force that is unemployed, but is actively seeking employment in Hong Kong. It reflects overall economic state in the country, as there is a strong correlation between consumer spending levels and labor market conditions. High rates of unemployment are accompanied by restrained spending, which causes an adverse effect on corporate profits and also leads to overall growth slowdown. Therefore, higher than projected rates of unemployment usually have a bearish effect on the national currency. The Census and Statistics Department in Hong Kong is to release the official data at 8:30 GMT on Monday.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 7.2217. In case AUD/HKD manages to breach the first resistance level at 7.2367, it will probably continue up to test 7.2495. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 7.2644.

If AUD/HKD manages to breach the first key support at 7.2088, it will probably continue to slide and test 7.1939. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 7.1810.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 7.2126. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 7.2457, R2 – 7.2678, R3 – 7.3009. The three key support levels are: S1 – 7.1905, S2 – 7.1574, S3 – 7.1353.