Forex Market: EUR/USD daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/USD traded within the range of 1.3337-1.3394 and closed at 1.3357, losing 0.17% for the day.

At 6:09 GMT today EUR/USD was losing 0.01% for the day to trade at 1.3361. The pair touched a daily low at 1.3343 at 1:30 GMT.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

Frances annualized industrial production probably contracted 1.6% in June, after dipping 3.7% during the preceding month. The index reflects the change in overall inflation-adjusted value of output in sectors such as manufacturing, mining, utilities, with the exception of recycling.

At the same time, the French annualized manufacturing production, which accounts for almost 80% of total industrial production, probably dropped 1.1% in June, according to the median estimate by experts. In May it shrank 3.0%. This index is considered as causing a greater influence on the currency market. In case manufacturing output increased more than projected, this would boost demand for the euro. The National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies is to publish the official data at 6:45 GMT.

United States

Non-Farm Productivity in the US probably rose 1.3% in the second quarter, preliminary data may show today, according to the median estimate by experts. In the previous quarter, non-farm productivity fell by 3.2%, induced by the bad weather in the country.

Labor productivity determines the interaction between real output and labor time, which is needed for their production. It shows changes in the number of goods and services produced per operating hour. Although the calculations associate the production with the working hours of all people engaged in a particular sector, the study does not include the specifics of the production process, capital/equipment or other production factors. The indicator reflects the associated impacts, including technological change, capital equipment, the level of production capacity, energy and materials, organization of production, management skills and characteristics and the efforts of the workforce. It is expressed as a percentage change compared to the previous quarter.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release an official report at 12:30 GMT. A higher-than-expected reading would be considered a bullish signal for the greenback.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.3363. In case EUR/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.3388, it will probably continue up to test 1.3420. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.3445.

If EUR/USD manages to breach the first key support at 1.3331, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.3306. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.3274.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.3414. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.3460, R2 – 1.3492, R3 – 1.3538. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.3382, S2 – 1.3336, S3 – 1.3304.