Forex Market: USD/JPY trading forecast for Monday

During Friday’s trading session USD/JPY traded within the range of 101.72-101.94 and closed at 101.83, adding 0.02% for the day and 0.49% on a weekly basis.

Fundamental view

The index of pending home sales in the United States probably rose 0.5% during June compared to May, according to the median estimate by experts, following a 6.1% gain that was the biggest since May 2013.

When a sales contract is accepted for a property, it is recorded as a pending home sale. As an indicator the index provides information on the number of future home sales, which are in the pipeline. It gathers data from real estate agents and brokers at the point of a sale of contract and is currently the most accurate indicator regarding US housing sector. It samples over 20% of the market. In addition, over 80% of pending house sales are converted to actual home sales within 2 or 3 months. Therefore, this index has a predictive value about actual home sales.

Although there are some cancellations, there are not enough for the data to be skewed one way or another. The base value of the index is equal to 100, while the base year is 2001, when there has been a high level of home sales. The National Association of Realtor’s (NAR) will release the official index value at 14:00 GMT on Monday. In case pending home sales increased more than anticipated, this would have a bullish effect on the greenback.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 101.83. In case USD/JPY manages to breach the first resistance level at 101.94, it will probably continue up to test 102.05. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 102.16.

If USD/JPY manages to breach the first key support at 101.72, it will probably continue to slide and test 101.61. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 101.50.