Forex Market: USD/NOK daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session USD/NOK traded within the range of 6.1498-6.1898 and closed at 6.1540.

At 6:29 GMT today USD/NOK was losing 0.02% for the day to trade at 6.1529. The pair touched a daily low at 6.1504 at 5:50 GMT.

Fundamental view

Norway

Norway’s annualized index of consumer prices (CPI) probably rose 2.2% in June. In monthly terms, the index probably remained flat last month, following a 0.1% increase in May. It reflects the change in the general level of prices of over 650 goods and services, which the population acquires, uses or pays for consumption. In case the CPI accelerated more than expected, this would bolster demand for the krone.

Nation’s annualized core CPI (CPI-ATE) probably jumped 2.7% in June, after rising 2.3% during the prior month. This indicator is comprised by two main components – CPI-AE, which excludes energy costs and prices of raw materials, and CPI-AT, which is based on real current prices adjusted for taxes. CPI-ATE is the indicator, used by Norges Bank in order to set its interest rate policy. A higher than expected core CPI would support the national currency, as this boosts the case for a rate hike.

Statistics Norway is to release the official report on consumer inflation at 8:00 GMT.

United States

The initial jobless claims in the US probably rose to 316 000 in the week ended July 5th, from 315 000 a week ago, according to the median estimate by experts.

The indicator measures the number of applications for unemployment benefits that are recorded each week in a report prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the United States. Initial application or (Initial Claim) means a completed document from an unemployed person before the local government, which is considered a claim for compensation or the possibility of compensation. The completion of the initial claim marks the beginning of a period in which the applicant receives unemployment benefits. The survey covers the number of applications registered in the previous week and is an important indicator concerning the health of the US labor market.

The statistical arm of the US Department of Labor will release an official report at 12:30 GMT today. If jobless claims rose less than expected, this will provide support for the US dollar.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case USD/NOK manages to breach the first resistance level at 6.1793, it will probably continue up to test 6.2045. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 6.2193.

If USD/NOK manages to breach the first key support at 6.1393, it will probably continue to slide and test 6.1245. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 6.0993.