Forex Market: EUR/NOK forecast for Monday

During Friday’s trading session EUR/NOK traded within the range of 8.3994-8.4579 and closed at 8.4153, losing 0.10% for the day.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

German seasonally adjusted index of industrial production probably increased 0.2% in May compared to a month ago, following another 0.2% gain in April. The index reflects the change in overall inflation-adjusted value of output in sectors such as manufacturing, mining and utilities. In case industrial output expanded more than anticipated, this would support demand for the euro. Destatis is to publish the official data at 6:00 GMT on Monday.

Spanish annualized industrial production probably expanded 3.8% in May, according to market expectations, after in April output rose 4.3%. Spains Instituto Nacional de Estadistica will release the official report at 7:00 GMT.

Confidence among investors in the Euro zone was probably lower during the current month, with the corresponding index coming in at a reading of 8.0. In June it stood at 8.5. The index is based on results from the SENTIX survey, one of the most prominent surveys, reflecting investors’ opinion in Germany. It encompasses 2 800 respondents, with 510 of them being institutional investors. Respondents present their expectations regarding ten different markets for a period of one and six months. Readings above zero indicate that respondents were predominantly optimistic, while readings below zero show pessimism. Higher than expected readings would provide support to the common currency. The official result is expected at 8:30 GMT.

Norway

Manufacturing output in Norway, an indicator measuring the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of production by manufacturers, probably shrank 0.7% in May, according to the median estimate by experts, following a flat performance in April. Annualized manufacturing output increased 1.8% in April. Manufacturing production accounts for almost 80% of total industrial production, as the latter is a dominant segment of country’s economy. In case output expanded more than projected, this would have a bullish effect on the krone. Statistics Norway will release the official figures at 8:00 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/NOK manages to breach the first resistance level at 8.4490, it will probably continue up to test 8.4827. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 8.5075.

If EUR/NOK manages to breach the first key support at 8.3903, it will probably continue to slide and test 8.3657. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 8.3320.