Forex Market: EUR/NOK daily forecast

During Friday’s trading session EUR/NOK traded within the range of 8.3364-8.3884 and closed at 8.3636.

At 7:26 GMT today EUR/NOK was gaining 0.25% for the day to trade at 8.3846. The pair touched a daily high at 8.3849 at 7:25 GMT.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

The annualized preliminary consumer price index in the Euro zone, evaluated in accordance with Eurostat’s harmonized methodology, probably accelerated to 0.6% in June, according to the median forecast by experts. In May the annualized final HICP stood at 0.5%, as reported on June 16th. The index shows the change in price levels of a basket of goods and services from consumer’s perspective and also reflects purchasing trends. The HICP is used to evaluate and compare inflation rates between Member States, according to Art . 121 of the Amsterdam’s Agreement and directives by the European Central Bank (ECB), in order to achieve price stability and the implementation of monetary policy. In case the HICP increased more than anticipated, thus, approaching the 2% inflation objective set by the ECB, this would support demand for the euro, because of the greater possibility of an interest rate hike. Eurostat is scheduled to release the official data at 9:00 GMT.

In addition, the annualized preliminary consumer price index in Italy probably fell to 0.3% in June, after a month ago the final CPI stood at 0.5%. Nations annualized preliminary CPI for June, evaluated in accordance with the harmonized methodology, probably matched the final HICP estimate of 0.4% in May, which was reported on June 13th. The National Institute of Statistics is to release the official CPI report at 9:00 GMT.

Norway

Retail sales index in Norway probably dropped 0.5% in May compared to a month ago, according to the median estimate by experts, after in April compared to March sales increased 0.5%. Annualized retail sales rose 3.4% in April. This indicator reflects the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales by retailers in the country and provides key information regarding consumer spending trend, while the latter is a major driving force behind economic growth. The index encompasses a sample of over 13 200 items, which are included in the VAT register of the country. Sales of motor vehicles and fuel, office equipment, wood etc. are also included, in case these items are directly sold to end consumers. If the index of retail sales showed a better-than-expected performance, this would have a bullish effect on the krone. Statistics Norway is to release the official report at 8:00 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/NOK manages to breach the first resistance level at 8.3892, it will probably continue up to test 8.4148. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 8.4412.

If EUR/NOK manages to breach the first key support at 8.3372, it will probably continue to slide and test 8.3108. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 8.2852.