Grains trading outlook: wheat, corn, soybeans futures lower after US crops report

Wheat, corn and soybeans futures slid during early trade in Europe today. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released weekly readings on crops yesterday, pressuring corn and wheat to new lows, while soybeans gained.

Weather patterns project more storms for the northern Plains and the Midwest this week. Rains will maintain surplus soil moisture, favoring growing crops, though damaging mature winter wheat. The southern Plains will also see showers and some not-so-warm weather this week. The Delta will probably also see winter wheat harvest delays due to rains.

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its report on crops progress and quality for the week through June 22 yesterday. The log revealed steady improvement throughout, with winter wheat harvest advancing and good crops condition across all grains.

“When you look at the entire domestic picture of the U.S., the rains that have fallen in most cases have been beneficial,” James Bower, the president of Bower Trading Inc. in Lafayette, Indiana, said for Bloomberg. “The crop is rated very, very high.”

Wheat

Wheat futures for July delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade stood at $5.764 per bushel, down 0.56% at 9:29 GMT today. Prices shifted between a three-month low of $5.742 per bushel and $5.800 per bushel. The contract dropped 0.94% yesterday, after closing last week relatively unchanged.

The NASS report showed 33% of winter wheat crops were harvested by June 22. 30% of crops were in better condition, while 44% were in worse, which is largely the same as last year.

Meanwhile, spring wheat emergence rate was at 98%, after 91% were posted last week. 10% of crops were headed, and 72% were in overall better condition, while only 4% were in worse.

Corn

Corn futures for July traded for $4.430 per bushel, down 0.34%. Prices reached a daily high and low at $4.446 and $4.406 per bushel, respectively, reaching a six-month low. Yesterday the contract dropped 1.93%, after a further 1.5% gain last week.

Readings in the NASS report pointed out that 74% of corn crops were in good or excellent shape, after 76% were posted for the previous week. The figure for the same period from last year is at 65%.

“The market appears unable to decide whether the wet conditions in the parts of the U.S. corn belt will overall be positive or negative for U.S. yields,” Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. analysts including Paul Deane wrote in an e-mailed note today, cited by Bloomberg. Crop conditions “deteriorated slightly due to excess rainfall in some areas,” they said.

Soybeans

Soybean futures for July traded for $14.136 per bushel, dropping 0.77%. Prices ranged between $14.110 and $14.230 per bushel. The contract added 0.64% yesterday, after minor losses last week, when a five-month low at $14.022 per bushel was reached.

The NASS log revealed beans planting was 95% complete, while 90% of acreage had emerged, both figures above the respective 5-year averages. Meanwhile, 73% of crops were reported in good or excellent conditions, also well-above the reading for the same week last year.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, wheat for July delivery on the CBOT will see its first resistance level at $5.892. If breached, the contract will advance to $5.988 and then to $6.046 per bushel. The first support points is estimated at $5.738. Should it be broken, wheat will test $5.680 and after that $5.584 per bushel.

Corn for July will have its first resistance at $4.533 and if it broken the contract will advance first to $4.623 and then to $4.669 per bushel. The first support level is calculated at $4.397. Should the contract breach that, it will probably continue down to $4.351. If both previous supports are penetrated corn will test $4.261 per bushel.

Soybeans for July have the front resistance level estimated at $14.379. If the contract manages to pass the first level, next resistance is expected at $14.511 and then $14.679 per bushel. Meanwhile, support is expected at $14.079, $13.911 and $13.779 per bushel.