Forex Market: EUR/USD trading forecast for Monday

During Friday’s trading session EUR/USD traded within the range of 1.3827-1.3848 and closed at 1.3830.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

The index measures the turnover in retail trade in Germany in the form of nominal or real (prices of charge) and their value changes. Statistics are prepared on the basis of a representative sample. Approximately 27 000 of about 378 000 business units in retail trade in Germany provide information on their turnover to the statistical offices. 700 other major companies in the retail industry provide information directly to the Federal Statistical Office. This is the percentage change from the previous month.

A higher-than-expected reading would heighten the appeal of the 18-nation common currency.

United States

The index of pending home sales in the United States probably rose by 0.6% in March compared to February, when sales unexpectedly declined by 0.8%. This indicator shows activity in terms of signing contracts for purchases of existing single-family houses. Actual payments are made one to two months after the contract has been signed. The index was started in 2001 and its base value was set at 100 points. The index of pending sales is built on broad national sample covering about 20% of the transactions of existing home sales.

The National Association of Realtor’s (NAR) will announce the official index value at 14:00 GMT. A higher-than-projected gain will support greenbacks demand.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.3846, it will probably continue up to test 1.3857. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.3867.

If EUR/USD manages to breach the first key support at 1.3825, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.3815. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.3804.