Forex Market: EUR/SEK daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/SEK traded within the range of 9.1065-9.1380 and closed at 9.1194.

At 6:19 GMT today EUR/SEK was losing 0.01% for the day to trade at 9.1206. The pair touched a daily low at 9.1104 at 6:05 GMT.

Fundamental view

Sweden

The unemployment rate in Sweden probably remained unchanged at 8.5% in March, the same rate as in the previous month, according to the median estimate by experts. From March 2005, the indicator covers all people of working age, who during the reference period were not employed, but have a desire to work and were actively seeking work during the last four weeks. People waiting to start work in the next three months are also included. Data from 1976 included also students eligible for unemployment by standards of the International Labour Organisation – ILO. The organization re-entered the survey in October 2007 and the unemployment rate is now calculated as the percentage of unemployed people to the total level of labor force in the country. Workforce represents the total of employed and unemployed persons.

Statistics Sweden is scheduled to release an official report at 07:30 GMT. A lower than expected unemployment rate will heighten the appeal of the Swedish krona.

Euro zone

Consumer confidence in the euro zone probably improved to -9.2 in April, from -9.3 in the previous month, according to the median estimate by experts. The index of economic sentiment or economic confidence is an indicator that consists of five major components, reflecting the mood in various economic sectors. They are presented with different weights in the composite index, and are the following: industrial confidence, confidence in the services sector, consumer confidence, confidence in the construction sector and confidence in the sector of retail sales. Indices of different types of trust are seasonally adjusted balances, generated from the responses of a number of issues directly related to the sector.

The European Commission provides preliminary data on consumer confidence two weeks before the final evaluation. It will release official data at 14:00 GMT today. A higher than expected reading will provide support for the 18-nation common currency.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/SEK manages to breach the first resistance level at 9.1360, it will probably continue up to test 9.1528. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 9.1676.

If EUR/SEK manages to breach the first key support at 9.1047, it will probably continue to slide and test 9.0898. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 9.0731.