Grain futures mixed, corn and soybeans advanced on Midwest rains

Grain futures were mixed on Monday with soybeans advancing, while corn and wheat fell. Rain forecasts in the Midwest were expected to delay harvests, while improving weather conditions in the Black Sea region boosted wheat crop prospects in Russia and Ukraine.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, soybeans futures for settlement in November rose by 0.27% to $12.7063 per bushel at 12:15 GMT. Prices held in range between days high of $12.7688 and low at $12.6188 per bushel, the weakest level since October 2. The oilseed plunged 1.5% on Friday, a fourth daily decline in five, and settled the week 2.2% lower.

DTNs forecast on October 11 called for dry conditions and only few harvest delays through Sunday. Next weeks outlook however pointed at heavy to moderate rain and colder temperatures, especially in western areas, increasing the risk for harvest delays. AccuWeather Inc. predicted that stormy weather moving from the Rocky Mountains will bring rain and hail from North Dakota to Texas, with steadiest rain across South Dakota and western Minnesota.

Vanessa Tan, an analyst at Phillip Futures Pte in Singapore, said for Bloomberg: “Rains will slow down harvesting. Changes in the weather will induce short-term swings in soybeans prices.”

Increasing shower chances in Brazils Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul states are expected to improve soil moisture and provide favorable conditions for the planting process, but may also lead to delays in planting in some areas.

Corn hits 3-year low

Elsewhere on the market, corn futures for delivery in December fell by 0.22% to $4.3238 per bushel at 12:18 GMT. Prices sank to a 38-month low of $4.3213 per bushel in the European trading session, while days high stood at $4.3438 a bushel. The grain retreated by 1.3% on Friday and settled the week 2.3% lower after losing 2.26% in the preceding five-day period.

Corn was pressured last week amid speculations that the U.S. government will scale back the mandate on the use of corn-based ethanol. Bloomberg reported that the Environmental Protection Agency might cut the mandate to 13 billion gallons from 13.8 billion a year earlier, which would curb the grain’s demand prospects.

The current dry trend in the Midwest is expected to ease harvests. The USDA said in its latest WASDE report that the nation will harvest a record 13.843 billion bushels of corn in 2013, 28% above last-year’s drought damaged crop. The next forecast update was scheduled for October 11 but will be delayed due to the lapse of government funding.

Agritel, a Paris-based farm adviser wrote in a report: “Corn prices remained under pressure due to the effect of the harvest in the U.S., with yields that are turning out generally correct.”

Wheat falls as well

Wheat also fell on the day as favorable weather conditions in the Black Sea region were expected to boost crop prospects. DTN reported on Friday that a milder and drier trend in Ukraine and western Russia will continue for the next five to seven days, benefiting winter wheat planting and the delayed summer crop harvest.

Wheat was well supported recently as wet weather in the Black Sea Region threatened to decrease production in Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine’s national weather center in Kiev said on September 27 that the nation’s winter-wheat planting may be 30% lower than expected following record rainfall.

Meanwhile, Russia’s agriculture Minister Nikolai Fedorov said last week that his country may plant only 13 million hectares of wheat next year, down from previously projected 16.4 million.

In the U.S., favorable conditions in the Southern Plains will favor planting and developing of winter wheat, but showers may increase in the next six to ten days.

Wheat futures for December settlement declined by 0.76% to $6.8713 per bushel at 12:20 GMT. Prices held in range between days high and low of $6.9613 and $6.8638 per bushel respectively. The grain snapped three days of declines on Friday and rose by 1%, settling the week 0.8% higher.