Grain futures mixed, wheat rebounds from 14-month low

Grain futures were mixed on Monday ahead of USDAs WASDE and crop progress reports. Corn rebounded from a three-year low but remained on negative territory, while soybeans advanced. Wheat erased partially earlier daily losses after rebounding from a freshly hit 14-month low.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, wheat futures for September delivery traded at $6.3163 a bushel at 9:50 GMT, down 0.28% on the day. Futures rebounded from a 14-month low of $6.3063, while days high stood at $6.3588 per bushel. The grain closed last week 4.03% lower after tumbling four out of five days.

Wheat bounced back from its 2012-low amid speculation that the USDA may trim its global supply forecast in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report later today. According to a Bloomberg survey, global wheat stockpiles may total 171.1 million tons in the 2013-2014 season, below the government agencys July estimate at 172.38 million tons.

Luke Mathews, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in a report today: “Tonight’s USDA WASDE report is expected to be mildly supportive for wheat prices, thanks to forecasts for lower global output and carryout.”

Meanwhile, corn rebounded from a three-year low on Monday but continued to trade on the red side. The grain stood at $4.6463 per bushel at 9:46 GMT, down 0.21% on the day. September futures fell to $4.6188 a bushel earlier in the day, the lowest since August 2010, while days high stood at $4.6513 a bushel.

At the same time, soybeans for September delivery rose to $12.2825 per bushel at 9:52 GMT, marking a 0.81% daily advance. Prices held in range between $12.2938 and $12.1675. The oilseed rose by 0.70% on Friday and settled the week 0.64% higher after shedding 19.6% in the preceding two five-day periods.

Both corn and soybeans crops, the two biggest in the U.S., were pressured recently as favorable weather conditions boosted prospects for a record-high output. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of eight agricultural commodities declined 19% so far this year with soybeans marking a 16% drop, while corn erased 35% and wheat lost 17%.

Despite the ample global supply forecasts, soybeans were recently supported by strong global demand. China, the worlds biggest importer and consumer, reported record inbound shipments in July on Thursday, while new-crop U.S. exports also exceeded expectations.

Market players are looking ahead at USDAs WASDE and U.S. crop progress report due at 12:00 PM Eastern time. According to a Reuters poll, soybeans output is likely to have fallen to a record-high 3.338 billion bushels this year, which is however below USDA’s July forecast at 3.42 billion bushels. Meanwhile, corn production is seen at a record 13.980 billion bushels, above USDA’s July projection at 13.950 billion. According to a separate Bloomberg survey, farmers may reap a record 14.036 billion bushels of corn this year, 30% more than last year’s drought-hurt production.